| Game | Bet | Edge | Verdict | Why It Rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle at Texas | Mariners ML | +6.4% | Core Play | Bullpen edge, contact suppression, and no major brand premium baked into the price. |
| Milwaukee at St. Louis | Brewers +1.5 | +4.1% | Lean | Underdog run-line value with steadier late-inning profile than the public read suggests. |
| Yankees at Dodgers | Pass | +0.8% | Pass | Too much attention, too much tax, and not enough clean model separation to justify exposure. |
| Cleveland at Baltimore | Under 8.5 | +3.6% | Lean | Run prevention setup is better than the market narrative around these lineups. |
Projects team strength using starting pitching, offense, bullpen, defense, park, and travel. This creates the baseline fair price before context adjustments.
Shifts weights for opener games, ace mismatches, weather distortion, injury concentration, lineup rest, and unusual bullpen strain.
Reads public bias, brand inflation, movement vs consensus, and where the number is too efficient to justify exposure.
Converts model edge into pass, lean, or core play. Discipline matters more than volume. The point is to avoid low-quality action.
Starting pitcher form, offense quality, bullpen fatigue, platoon edges, defense, park factor, travel, umpire influence, weather, and injury concentration.
Open-to-close movement, implied probability gaps, public team tax, ace-name premium, total inflation, and pass conditions when the board is too efficient.
Closing line value, realized outcome, category hit rate, false positives, pass discipline, and post-result review to reverse engineer misses and improve weights.
| Date | Play | Result | CLV | Did Model Read It Right? | Postmortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9 | Seattle ML | Win | +2.1% | Yes | Base model and bullpen edge both held. Good example of market underpricing late-game leverage. |
| Jun 9 | Brewers +1.5 | Loss | +1.4% | Partly | Price improved into close, but variance hit early. Keep category; no evidence the framework was wrong. |
| Jun 9 | Yankees/Dodgers Pass | Correct Pass | n/a | Yes | No clean edge existed. This is the kind of restraint that protects long-run performance. |